Takeaways from the Election of 2025? ([[We aren't pundits]]) but... 1. [It's the economy, stupid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It%27s_the_economy,_stupid). (We'll get to Bill C. in a minute) 2. No one believes media from outside their bubble. Because it's all so much [[On Political Botslop|slop]]. [Andrew Cuomo tried to warn us.](https://x.com/prem_thakker/status/1981150231174746370?s=20) #### Tuning out the outrage is everywhere. After 30 years of outrage porn, Americans are tuning out politics as presented for much of our lifetimes. This is deeply reflected in [viewing habits.](https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/streaming-overtakes-cable-broadcast-cable-tv-first-time-rcna213451)Cords are cutting. Political eyeballs are moving to discursive formats on YouTube. Normal eyeballs are moving to streamers that don't *yet* [take political ads](https://campaignsandelections.com/industry-news/the-streaming-services-on-political-advertisers-wishlists/). We brought up [[Recruiting... or Casting|Graham Platner]] in Maine - before we knew about Nazi tattoos. Cable [shredded him](https://www.msnbc.com/the-briefing-with-jen-psaki/watch/platner-defies-scandals-and-his-own-party-to-carry-on-in-senate-race-250875973891) for over a week, before moving on to VA and NJ. It didn't change things for his trajectory against Janet Mills in Maine. He's significantly frontrunner for Democratic nominee against Susan Collins, [a tough match up for team blue.](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/senate-rating-change-maine-moves-from-leans-republican-to-toss-up/) Now, Maine is full of progressive white liberals who hate the Democratic establishment; and they don't hate Nazis any less than most of us. But they might hate scolding about having tattoos (face it: you read this; you don't have any). And more-so: *they hate that some of us pretend to* *care so much about trivialities at all*. Obligatory point: [Nazis are assholes](https://youtu.be/ZTT1qUswYL0?si=53io3lLKHrHixDW5&t=98). But [political outrage slop is a bourgeois abstraction](https://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/trump-attacks-mccain-i-like-people-who-werent-captured-120317) from a time when gatekeepers kept gates, and [[Institutional weakening is more evident in politics with each passing year|institutional weakening]] was less pronounced. "*I can't pay rent next month... you're telling me a lot about who you are that you can afford to care.*" If a candidate can bridge that gap in understanding... well, they might be Zohran Mamdani or Donald Trump. Yes, skilled populists run well in a populist era. Able to motivate otherwise tepid voters by thumbing the system with a smirk. Both New Yorkers. And both have [[brand clarity]]: for or against, a no-opinion can't last. ### About that text thread VA AG candidate Jay Jones threatened violence against the families of Republicans in a group chat, underperform ingthe top of his ticket [by about five points head to head](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/11/04/us/elections/results-virginia-attorney-general.html), yet still winning handily. Lots of people who've voted for lots Republicans in their life supported him. Possible reasons why: 1. Partisans cluster down ticket; Dems showed up to vote their pocketbook. 2. And even for non-partisans: it's always the economy, stupid. 3. Splintered media habits; it just didn't break through. 4. Republican Jason Miyares' advertising was uninspiring, at best. He failed to create his own, independent brand. To that last point: this [is an ad about car jacking](https://adstransparency.google.com/advertiser/AR06800150251500994561/creative/CR03452022566217056257?region=US&topic=political). Or wait, it's about partisanship. Or wait, it's an attack ad on Jones, who is reckless and crazy. But Jason's normal, you see. He walks slo-mo through people's driveways on Saturdays wearing a suit, so neighbors' wives can ogle him like this. 100% normal. So don't vote for the crazy guy. ![[Miyares.png]] *But, even given all that: fantasies about shooting Republican children in a truly viral oppo drop?* And still chase within margin? It feels different. Our take: it's all the above; plus one more: the simple reality that no one believes political assertions anymore on face value - at least not right away. They're just too easy to ignore. What good is throwing mud in a wet mosh pit? If marketing in a crowded space couldn't work, Bud Light wouldn't buy billboards at ballparks. They do. It can. But first; repeat repeat repeat. *If political figures repeat the behaviors that get them in trouble and if an accusation is consonant with the rest of their public persona*, it can bake into their brand. Otherwise it will wash away as so much noise. Want to convince voters you're a Nazi? Keep doing rallies; get a different mustache. It'll give you some [[Brand Clarity]]. Jay Jones doesn't look like a guy who shoots at Republican kids. He seems... normal. And contrite. Just like Graham Platner doesn't exactly vibe as "fascist." Nowadays that might be enough for people to move on in their heads. ##### A better frame on oppo for 2025 and beyond: Fake moral outrage doesn't sell in a country fundamentally desensitized from collective moral judgment. [That may have started a decade ago](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/12/04/568255700/billy-bush-of-course-its-trumps-voice-on-access-hollywood-tape). [Or longer.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_ipnwoPczQ) Clinton, who perfected the [[kayfabe]] of American moral-political theatre, was amazing for ratings. Bookers and printers started to let down the old WASPy guardrails of talking politics in terms of policy, and more in terms of culture war. [[2025 - The Year the Internet Tipped?#^7fcf7b|Moral judgment]] in a post-Protestant nation is in short supply. Beyond the Woke 15%, we're still a libertarian, you-do-you culture discomfited by our "moral betters" giving us instruction. That's a topic beyond political advertising; it's also a reality that enshrouds it. Thirty years of culture war later, though; it just doesn't shock anyone. And, since about Clinton and his economic peaks of the 90s; the stakes for a hollowed out middle class notch a little higher each year. ![[Historical Voter Turnout.png]] When it feels like we're all [fighting over a shrinking pie](https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Abundance/Ezra-Klein/9781668023488), rather than a growing one; [it tends to up the stakes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flour_War) Scold him all you want; the guy who says "free rent" with a smile on his face is gonna sound good to folks on the margins who are marginal voters; Nazi tattoo or Communist father or not - it's [[Brand Clarity]]. ### When no one believes you, running against the fundamentals is hard. *You're telling me a lot about who you are by what you bother to care about.* Trust can be built, but it takes time, repetition and credibility. The only way to break through it is to develop [[Can Advertising Outpace Rage Bait?|para-social trust]] with voters on aesthetic and ideological grounds. Credibility comes from caring about something real. And you can't just assert it. You have to show it visually. (And many times that comes from third party testifiers.) Like [Joe Manchin's 2018 ad featuring the Farmington Number Nine mine explosion.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryMwF9Xr8yA) Or [Charlie Baker's 2018 ad featuring a deeply personal interaction.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KiNprNA2qE) Or [Susan Collins' 2008 diabetes ad.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgDJSTImMBs&t=62s) The [Strategists Fallacy](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-strategists-fallacy?r=44ipqz&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true&__readwiseLocation=), (h/t G. Elliott Morris) is always worth remembering: voters don't think about politics the way we do, insofar as they sort and rank issues; any more than they sort and rank outrages. Which is why we shouldn't list issues out when we appeal to people in an attempt to build trust. Name ID is name ID. Durable name ID is an emotional hook - positive or negative. Want to build a bulwark against a coming wave? Build some emotional credibility with voters. [[Write How People Speak]]. Tell them things that matter in a way they will believe. And keep visual, ideological and policy consistency. [[Brand Clarity]]. One year to go. Buckle up.