![[Matter Header Twitter.png]] Takeaways from the Election of 2025? ([[We aren't pundits]]) but... 1. [It's the economy, stupid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It%27s_the_economy,_stupid). (We'll get to Bill C.) 2. No one believes media from outside their bubble. Because it's all so much [[On Political Botslop|slop]]. [Andrew Cuomo tried to warn us.](https://x.com/prem_thakker/status/1981150231174746370?s=20) #### Tuning out the outrage is everywhere. Politics as presented for much of our lifetimes is a parade of [[Can Advertising Outpace Rage Bait?|outrage porn]]. It's getting old. This is deeply reflected in [viewing habits.](https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/streaming-overtakes-cable-broadcast-cable-tv-first-time-rcna213451)Cords are cutting. Political eyeballs are moving to discursive formats on YouTube. Normal eyeballs are moving to streamers that don't *yet* [take political ads](https://campaignsandelections.com/industry-news/the-streaming-services-on-political-advertisers-wishlists/). A month ago, we brought up [[Recruiting... or Casting|Graham Platner]] in Maine - before we knew about his Nazi tattoos. Cable [shredded him](https://www.msnbc.com/the-briefing-with-jen-psaki/watch/platner-defies-scandals-and-his-own-party-to-carry-on-in-senate-race-250875973891) for a solid week, before moving on to VA and NJ. It didn't change things for his trajectory against Janet Mills in Maine. He's still the frontrunner for the Democratic nominee against Susan Collins, [a tough match up for team blue.](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/senate-rating-change-maine-moves-from-leans-republican-to-toss-up/) Now, Maine is full of progressive white liberals who hate the Democratic establishment; and they don't hate Nazis any less than most of us. But Mainers might hate scolding about tattoos in general (face it: you read this; you don't have any) And more-so: *they hate how political actors pretend to care so much about trivialities that don't affect anyone*. Obligatory point: [Nazis are, in fact, assholes](https://youtu.be/ZTT1qUswYL0?si=53io3lLKHrHixDW5&t=98). But [political outrage slop is a bourgeois abstraction](https://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/trump-attacks-mccain-i-like-people-who-werent-captured-120317) from a time when gatekeepers kept gates, and [[Institutional weakening is more evident in politics with each passing year|institutional weakening]] was less pronounced. "*I can't pay rent next month... you're telling me a lot about who you are that you can afford to care.*" If a candidate can bridge that gap in understanding; between what they purport to care about and what marginal voters care about... well, they might be Zohran Mamdani or Donald Trump. Both skilled populists in a populist era. Both able to motivate otherwise tepid voters by thumbing the system with a smirk. Both New Yorkers who like the camera. Both have [[brand clarity]]: for or against, a no-opinion can't stick. ### About that text thread VA AG candidate Jay Jones threatened violence against the families of Republicans in a group chat, underperformed the top of his ticket [by about five points head to head](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/11/04/us/elections/results-virginia-attorney-general.html), and still won handily. Lots of people who've voted for lots Republicans in their life supported him. Possible reasons why: 1. Partisans cluster down ticket; Dems showed up to vote their pocketbook. 2. Even for non-partisans: it's always the economy, stupid. 3. Republican Jason Miyares' advertising was uninspiring, at best. He failed to create his own, independent brand. To that last point: this [is an ad about car jacking](https://adstransparency.google.com/advertiser/AR06800150251500994561/creative/CR03452022566217056257?region=US&topic=political). Or wait, it's about partisanship. Or wait, it's an attack ad on Jones, who is reckless and crazy. But Jason's normal, you see. He walks slo-mo through people's driveways on Saturdays wearing a suit, so neighbors' wives can ogle him like this. 100% normal. So don't vote for the crazy guy. ![[Miyares.png]] *But, even given all that: fantasies about shooting Republican children in a truly viral oppo drop?* *And still chase within margin?* It feels different. Our take: all above apply; plus one more consideration: the simple reality that no one believes political assertions anymore on face value; at least not right away. They're just too easy to ignore. What good is throwing mud in a wet mosh pit? If marketing in a crowded space couldn't work, Bud Light wouldn't buy billboards at ballparks. They do. It can. But first; repeat repeat repeat. *If political figures repeat the behaviors that get them in trouble and if an accusation is consonant with the rest of their public persona*, it can bake into their brand. Otherwise it will wash away as so much noise. Want to convince voters you're a Nazi? Keep doing rallies; get a different mustache. It'll give you some [[Brand Clarity]]. Jay Jones doesn't look like a guy who shoots at Republican kids. He seems... boring. And contrite. Just like Graham Platner doesn't vibe as "fascist." Nowadays that might be enough for people to move on in their heads, facts be damned. ##### A better frame on inflammatory oppo for 2025 and beyond: Fake moral outrage doesn't sell in a country fundamentally desensitized from collective moral judgment. [That may have started a decade ago](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/12/04/568255700/billy-bush-of-course-its-trumps-voice-on-access-hollywood-tape). [Or longer.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_ipnwoPczQ) Clinton, who perfected the [[kayfabe]] of moral-political theatre, was great for ratings (Lewinsky helped). Bookers and printers started to let down the old WASPy guardrails of talking politics in terms of policy, and more in terms of culture war. [[2025 - The Year the Internet Tipped?#^7fcf7b|Moral judgment]] in a post-Protestant nation is in short supply. Beyond the Woke 15%, we're still a libertarian, you-do-you culture discomfited by our "moral betters" giving us instruction. Thirty plus years of culture war later; moral dramas don't shock anyone. Trump's most underrated political achievement might be finally shaking the GOP brand free of the Moral-Scold hangover of the Pat Robertson-Jerry Falwell era. And since Clinton's economic peaks of the 90s; the stakes for a hollowed out middle class notch a little higher each cycle. ![[Historical Voter Turnout.png]] When it feels like we're all [fighting over a shrinking pie](https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Abundance/Ezra-Klein/9781668023488), rather than a growing one; [it tends to up the stakes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flour_War) Scold him all you want; the guy who says "free rent" with a smile on his face sounds good to folks on the margins who are also marginal voters; Nazi tattoo or Communist father or not. It's [[Brand Clarity]] winning out. ### When no one believes you, running against the fundamentals is hard. *You're telling me a lot about who you are by what you can afford to care about.* Just like in real relationships, so too with digitally mediated relationships: [[Can Advertising Outpace Rage Bait?|para-social trust]] can be built, but it takes time, repetition and credibility - reinforced on ideological *and* aesthetic terms Credibility comes from caring about something real. And you can't just assert it. You have to show it visually. (Often best from third party testifiers.) Like [Joe Manchin's 2018 ad featuring the Farmington Number Nine mine explosion.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryMwF9Xr8yA) Or [Charlie Baker's 2018 ad featuring a deeply personal interaction.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KiNprNA2qE) Or [Susan Collins' 2008 diabetes ad.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgDJSTImMBs&t=62s) We might quibble with technique here and there on all three. But these are politicians who survived against partisan tendencies by saying real, true, honest things about who they are and what they stand for. The [Strategists Fallacy](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-strategists-fallacy?r=44ipqz&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true&__readwiseLocation=), (h/t G. Elliott Morris) is always worth remembering: voters don't think about politics the way we do, insofar as they sort and rank issues; any more than they sort and rank outrages. Which is why we shouldn't [[Don’t Let the Pollster Write the Ads|list issues out]] when we appeal to people in an attempt to build trust. Name ID is name ID. Durable name ID is an emotional hook - positive or negative. Want to build a bulwark against a coming wave? Build some emotional credibility with voters. [[Write How People Speak]]. Tell them things that matter in a way they will believe. And keep visual, ideological and political consistency. That makes [[Brand Clarity]] possible. One year to go. Buckle up.